[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250527
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE
WAVE MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS. A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 56W-58W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SURINAME FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 55W-57W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 31W EXTENDING TO 1S40W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 12W-20W...FROM EQ-2S
BETWEEN 20W-22W...AND FROM EQ-2S BETWEEN 25W-28W. CLUSTERS OF
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF NE
BRAZIL FROM EQ-6S BETWEEN 32W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
26N-28N BETWEEN 94W-98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE E
GULF E OF 87W AND N OF 25N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 90W.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THIS AREA. SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT... A SURFACE TROUGH TO
MOVE FROM TEXAS TO LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER N FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1007 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND A TROPICAL WAVE IS
APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE
TO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 84W-87W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER N
BELIZE FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 87W-89W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 75W-78W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...NW FLOW IS NOTED FROM ABOVE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO ABOVE TRINIDAD. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE
AREA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVER THE W ATLANTIC...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 74W-77W...WHILE ISOLATED
SHOWERS PERSISTS N OF 20N BETWEEN 73W-80W. A STATIONARY 1017 MB
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N49W. A TROUGH EXTENDS S
ALONG 30N46W 24N50W 20N60W 20N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 36N33W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N46W. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-40W.
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT...MORE
SHOWERS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA



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