[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 10N MOVING WEST NEAR 15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 6N ACROSS INLAND NE
BRAZIL...FRENCH GUIANA AND ERN SURINAME THAT COINCIDE WITH
HIGHER LEVELS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT
FROM CIMSS. WAVE IS ALSO BEGINNING TO MOVE UNDER AN AREA OF
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASED SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE GUYANAS AND ERN
VENEZUELA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N16W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 24W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N
BETWEEN 9W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM S OF JACKSONVILLE THROUGH TAMPA INTO A 1007 MB
LOW NEAR NAPLES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ACROSS
THE ERN FLORIDA STRAITS TO OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE WRN
CARIBBEAN. DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA AND
MUCH OF THE E GULF NE OF A LINE FROM KEY WEST FLORIDA TO
GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN FROM
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N85W WITH A
EXPANSIVE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE NE GULF...FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE W ATLC. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STRONG NE
WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED N OF 28N E OF 85W. A NARROW
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WRN GULF AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 22N80W TO 17N83W.
WHILE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS NORTH ACROSS
FLORIDA...THE NE GULF AND W ATLC...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 67W-84W. ALOFT...THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS IS BEING AIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ACROSS ERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND THE N/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND COSTA RICA AND PANAMA AS THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ALONG 8N TO A 1006 MB
COLOMBIAN LOW NEAR 8N73W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE NE TO BEYOND 32N78W. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE PRESENTLY N OF THE WARM FRONT TO ALONG THE SE CONUS
COASTLINE. AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW-LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE AND UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE W ATLC WATERS W OF 66W. MOST OF THE W ATLC IS
UNDER A LARGE DIFFLUENT ZONE E OF AN UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE
ERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N85W WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREAS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 22N71W N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NW TO
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N45W
27N44W 24N46W 20N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 31N51W AND A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR
31N55W THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 30N BETWEEN
42W-53W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLC NW OF THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS NEAR 34N19W AND EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO NEAR 5N ACROSS THE E ATLC WITH NELY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT
NOTED ALONG THE W AFRICAN COAST AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS.

$$
HUFFMAN




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