[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST ABOUT
15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE AT
THE PRESENT TIME.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN LIBERIA COAST
NEAR 4N7W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 25W...TO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-1S BETWEEN 4W-10W...AND FROM 4N-EQ
BETWEEN 11W-16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST
OF BRAZIL FROM 1N-2S BETWEEN 41W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W TO
BEYOND WEST CUBA NEAR 23N82W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MOVING NE. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING NE SURFACE WINDS.
20-25 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE 10-15 KT
WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF N OF 25N
AND E OF 87W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE NE GULF NEAR 27N84W. THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA HAS ABUNDANT
UPPER AIR MOISTURE WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF. EXPECT...A 1009 MB LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY N OF THE
CENTER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER W CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN
ALONG 23N82W 20N85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
FRONT OVER CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 77W-79W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 71W-75W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 12N-14N
BETWEEN 81W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION
FROM THE SW TO NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENTLY ALONG THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N76W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 77W-82W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG 25N77W 24N74W 23N71W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 22N-28N
BETWEEN 70W-79W. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N67W 27N44W 24N46W 19N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 31N-32N BETWEEN 43W-45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N27W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS FURTHER E N OF 20N BETWEEN 65W-75W. IN THE
TROPICS...UPPER LEVEL HIGHS ARE CENTERED NEAR 8N47W AND 5N22W.
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
EXPECT...CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA





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