[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N9W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W
AND CONTINUING JUST SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR TO 47W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AXIS ALONG 42W S OF 4N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH S OF 2N. ELSEWHERE...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 7N BETWEEN 11W-22W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 5N BETWEEN 22W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING COVERS THE ERN U.S. AND NRN FLORIDA
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INLAND ACROSS SRN
MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA EXTENDING WWD ACROSS SRN TEXAS. VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS FOUND S OF THE FRONT AS
LIGHT SE SURFACE FLOW IS EVIDENT FROM SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE GULF. THESE WINDS ARE LOCATED ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE WRN GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
DEBRIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE
W/CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
COSTA RICA WHICH IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA W
OF 76W. THIS MOISTURE IS RESULTANT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SRN MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN FROM
N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS S ALONG 64W TO NEAR THE NE VENEZUELA
COAST. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER
ANTILLES E OF THE AXIS MAINLY N OF 12N. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN PRIMARILY DUE TO A RELAXED PRESSURE
GRADIENT LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING WWD IN CONVERGENT SURFACE FLOW
ACROSS THE BASIN S OF 16N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ATLANTIC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ANCHORED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ONE RIDGE
EXTENDS SW FROM 36N53W ACROSS BERMUDA TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
ONE WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE W ATLC
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N69W IS PROVIDING SUPPORT
FOR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 22N74W IN THE SE BAHAMAS
TO 30N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH
WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM 22N64W NE TO 31N71W. THIS ACTIVITY
IS LOCATED UNDER A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ZONE
ACROSS THE W ATLC DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN
NWD INTO THE UPPER LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
TSTMS EXTEND FARTHER SE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND TROPICAL
ATLC FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 55W-66W. THE SECOND RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE E ATLC FROM A SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED NE OF THE AZORES.
THE WEAKNESS IN THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC AS A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS NEAR 30N40W PROVIDING
SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N42W TO 32N38W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS FROM 27N TO
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 31W-41W.

$$
HUFFMAN





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