[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N9W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W
AND CONTINUING ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 48W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AXIS ALONG 43W S OF 4N. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 10W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING COVERS THE ERN U.S. AND THE EXTREME
NRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INLAND
ACROSS SRN MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA EXTENDING WWD ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS ARE S OF THE
FRONT AS LIGHT SE SURFACE FLOW IS EVIDENT FROM SHIP AND BUOY
OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0000
UTC. THESE WINDS ARE LOCATED ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TO THE WRN GULF WATERS. AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN...THE RESULT
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SRN
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS SRN
MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
VENEZUELA ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA E OF 75W.
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND SRN MEXICO. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS
ADVECTING EWD OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN TO 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE MONA PASSAGE S ALONG 68W
TO NEAR CARACAS VENEZUELA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES E OF THE AXIS MAINLY N OF 12N.
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN PRIMARILY DUE
TO A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING WWD ACROSS
THE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ATLANTIC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ANCHORED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ONE RIDGE
EXTENDS SW FROM 37N50W ACROSS BERMUDA TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
ONE WEAKNESS ACROSS THE W ATLC IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 30N70W PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 23N72W TO 32N72W AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A LARGE
DIFFLUENT ZONE IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE W ATLC AND IS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN NWD INTO THE UPPER LOW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND TROPICAL ATLC FROM 13N-26N BETWEEN 56W-66W.
THE SECOND RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE E ATLC FROM SURFACE HIGH
ANCHORED WELL N OF THE AZORES. THE WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AS A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR
31N39W PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
25N40W TO BEYOND 32N40W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS FROM 27N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 31W-40W.

$$
HUFFMAN




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