[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N6W 1N20W DIPPING TO S OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 23W...THEN CONTINUING W TO 2S30W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR
3S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-1S
BETWEEN 1E-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 2S-4S BETWEEN 18W-23W...4N-6N BETWEEN 10W-14W...AND FROM
EQ-4S BETWEEN 17W-25W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N-6S BETWEEN 34W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S LOUISIANA TO S OF
TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 30N90W 21N97W MOVING SE. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
TENNESSEE FROM 30N-37N BETWEEN 83W-90W. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF. WINDS S OF THE FRONT
ARE 20-25 KT FROM THE S. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TEXAS COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO THE 40'S AND 50'S. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. A BAND OF
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N-27N. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM N FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION PREDOMINATELY OVER THE NE GULF AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ALSO EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
THE W GULF UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PATCHES OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ENTRAINING
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...N VENEZUELA...AND N COLOMBIA E OF
75W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...
E CUBA...AND JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT OVER TRINIDAD AND NE
VENEZUELA. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
S OF 15N E OF 80W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N65W. A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N37W TO 24N43W. A WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES S TO TRINIDAD AT 11N60W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT FROM
20N-30N TO 72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. A TROUGH IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC BETWEEN
15W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 7N30W. EXPECT...THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TO BE ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST IN 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA








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