[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 3N20W DIPPING TO S OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 25W...THEN CONTINUING W TO 2S30W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR
1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4S BETWEEN
12W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-4S
BETWEEN 18W-23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-6S BETWEEN 31W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S LOUISIANA TO N OF
TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 30N93W 23N97W MOVING RAPIDLY SE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE NE GULF STATES
FROM 30N-35N BETWEEN 85W-92W. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG
THE COAST OF TEXAS ARE PRESENTLY 25 KT FROM THE N. WINDS S OF
THE FRONT ARE 20-25 KT FROM THE S. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
LAGS A BIT AND HAS NOT REACHED THE COAST YET. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. A BAND
OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N-27N. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24
HOURS WITH CONVECTION PREDOMINATELY OVER THE NE GULF AND N
FLORIDA. ALSO EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE
NW GULF IN A FEW HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PATCHES OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ENTRAINING
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND N VENEZUELA E OF 72W. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...E
CUBA...AND JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT OVER TRINIDAD AND NE
VENEZUELA. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N66W. A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N40W TO 24N46W. A WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES S TO 15N54W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT FROM 20N-30N TO
72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 30N13W 25N20W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 28N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. A TROUGH IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC BETWEEN
15W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 7N30W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA





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