[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 4N15W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT
30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S41W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC OFF THE FLORIDA
COAST IS PROVIDING BRISK E TO SE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF N OF
26N W OF 92W...WITH WEATHER RADAR INDICATING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO NOTED OVER THE SE GULF. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THESE ELY TRADES GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO
HONDURAS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH A DRY STABLE ATMOSPHERE NW OF A
LINE FROM HISPANIOLA TO SRN NICARAGUA. E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
STRONG SWLY UPPER WINDS...90-95 KT...ARE TRANSPORTING UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE ERN
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WELL N OF THE AREA OFF THE NE U.S. COAST TO 32N70W
TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. THE
FIRST ONE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N50W TO 23N57W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. THE SECOND
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CLIPS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N63W TO
29N70W TO 32N79W. STRONG NLY SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A 115-120 KT
JET STREAM FROM N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N68W TO 26N49W WHERE
WINDS DECREASE TO 95-105 KT...THEN CONTINUES TO 13N24W.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N79W TO MID LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 11N55W. DOWNSTREAM DEEP LAYER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N17W TO 32N20W 9N24W.

$$
DGS




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