[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 2N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 30W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 2N E OF 3W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE W ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH NW UPPER FLOW DOMINATING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST IN THE W ATLC AND IS PROVIDING THE GULF
WITH MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND SE RETURN FLOW OF UP TO 20 KT.
THIS RETURN FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH AND
CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE N/CENTRAL CONUS. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC WHILE MAINTAINING THE SLY RETURN
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
CLIP THE EXTREME NW GULF EARLY WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THESE ELY TRADES GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO. THE STRONGEST OF THESE TRADEWINDS...UP TO 25 KT...
ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO EL SALVADOR
AND IS PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE NW OF
A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA TO SRN NICARAGUA. E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...
STRONG SWLY UPPER WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SW AND ERN CARIBBEAN ON THE
SRN EXTENT OF A 80 TO 110 KT STREAM JET THAT EXTENDS FROM 15N78W
NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC S OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. THE FIRST OF WHICH ENTERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N50W EXTENDING ALONG 30N51W 25N55W TO
21N59W. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 24N. THE SECOND
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CLIPS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N67W WSW
TO 31N73W WITH INCREASED WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 30N BETWEEN
58W-73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE W ATLC...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS S OF 30N W OF 60W. OVERALL NE TO ELY SURFACE FLOW
AND BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE W OF 60W. ACROSS THE E ATLC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM N OF THE AZORES TO ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY UNDER MAINLY 15 TO 20 KT NE TO E SURFACE FLOW.

$$
HUFFMAN


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