[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N8W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
23W EXTENDING TO 1S30W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-2N BETWEEN 20W-24W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 9W-11W...FROM 1S-4S
BETWEEN 18W-25W...AND FROM EQ-5S BETWEEN 29W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
IS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 25N80W TO 25N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA S OF 28N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 27N88W TO 20N88W DRIFTING
W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 92W.
MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE W GULF. 10-15 KT NE TO E WINDS
ARE OVER THE GULF. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60'S OVER THE NORTH
GULF STATES AND ARE IN THE 70'S S OF 25N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
NOTED OVER THE AREA EXCEPT OVER S FLORIDA WHERE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE PREVAILS. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A LOW LEVEL TROUGH TO REMAIN
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PATCHES OF BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
N COLOMBIA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 72W-75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N69W MOVING E. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N48W TO
29N50W 24N60W 23N70W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
TO SOUTH FLORIDA TO 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM
OF THE FRONTS. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N18W
28N20W 24N30W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF
THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N FROM
FLORIDA TO 60W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
20-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL E
ATLANTIC NEAR 4N27W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH CENTER
TO 5N50W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO
MOVE E TO 32N39W WITH SHOWERS IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE E ATLANTIC TO LIKEWISE MOVE E TO 32N10W WITH
SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA





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