[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 190533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N6W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
24W EXTENDING TO 2S40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 16W-19W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-3S BETWEEN 20W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
IS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 25N80W TO 25N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA S OF 28N. TWO SMALL LOW LEVEL SWIRLS WITH
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N88W AND AT
25N91W DRIFTING W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E
GULF E OF 92W. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE W GULF. 10-15 KT
NE TO E WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60'S
OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES AND ARE IN THE 70'S S OF 25N. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS NOTED OVER THE AREA EXCEPT OVER S FLORIDA WHERE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE PREVAILS. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A LOW LEVEL TROUGH TO REMAIN
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PATCHES OF BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
N COLOMBIA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 72W-75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N51W TO
26N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG
24N70W 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT.
A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N43W MOVING
E. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N20W 27N25W
26N30W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N FROM FLORIDA
TO 60W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20-60W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR
4N27W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 5N50W.
EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE E TO
32N40W WITH SHOWERS IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE E ATLANTIC TO LIKEWISE MOVE E TO 32N12W WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA






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