[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
24W EXTENDING INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 5S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 6W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2S BETWEEN 42W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1021 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER SW GEORGIA WITH
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
THROUGH PANAMA CITY INTO THE NE GULF NEAR 30N87W WHERE IT
CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 29N90W 24N96W TO INLAND
OVER MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL GULF AND
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF...FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WWD ACROSS THE E GULF FROM THE W ATLC.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ACROSS SRN FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N72W. SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
ERN TEXAS WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING MAINLY BEHIND AND
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NW GULF. THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OBSERVED IN THE
UPPER LEVELS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASED UPON
AN EARLY MORNING QSCAT PASS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS UP TO 30
KT OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 73W-77W. PATCHES
OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE BEING ADVECTED WWD ACROSS THE BASIN. THE MOST CONCENTRATED
AREA OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY N OF 16N E OF 71W...INCLUDING
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WRN
CARIBBEAN WITH CONFLUENT FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 28N64W AND
ENCOMPASSES THE ATLC W OF 40W TO THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST. THIS
SURFACE HIGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE WRN CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA TO BEYOND 32N72W. ACROSS THE E
ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 25N E OF 35W AND SUPPORTS A
1006 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N28W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 28N24W 23N23W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 5N31W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING WNW TO NEAR 14N52W. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

$$
HUFFMAN



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