[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161112
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 22W EXTENDING TO 2S30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 5S37W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-6N BETWEEN 3W-1E.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-2S BETWEEN 22W-29W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL
FROM EQ-3S BETWEEN 41W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S ALABAMA TO
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 31N88W 26N95W
18N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT
MOSTLY FROM ALABAMA TO S TEXAS. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF...FLORIDA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MOSTLY 5KT N WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 10-15 KT SE WINDS
ARE S OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50'S N OF THE FRONT
AND ARE IN THE 70'S S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W...THUS SW UPPER LEVEL
WINDS PREVAIL. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NE
MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE
ZONAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT...THE FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS WITH
SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONGEST
WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLUMBIA WITH 25-30 KT. PATCHES
OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE AREA
ESPECIALLY N OF 16N TO INCLUDE THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...N NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N64W. A 1006 MB LOW
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N29W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S
FROM THE LOW TO 28N24W 20N27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF
60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E NEAR 31N28W.  AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR
6N48W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS E FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO W AFRICA
NEAR 9N13W. EXPECT...THE LOW TO MOVE TO 29N22W WITH SHOWERS IN
24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA




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