[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071202
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT MAR 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA TO 2N16W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
22W...TO 2SN30W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S44W.
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 10N60W 10N45W 7N25W 6N10W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 85W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EVERYWHERE. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS AROUND A RIDGE ALONG THE LINE FROM 29N80W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
GUADELOUPE PASSAGE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 24N56W TO GUADELOUPE. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA
BORDER NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARE BLOWING ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST AND IN THE WATERS FROM 10N
TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W...EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12 FT TO 17
FT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING IN THAT AREA
UNDER LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS
DEEPENED FROM 24 HOURS AGO...ALLOWING THE CURRENT 1008 MB
GALE CENTER TO DEVELOP 18 HOURS AGO AND MOVE TO ITS CURRENT
POSITION NEAR 26N56W. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 12 FT
TO 20 FT FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITHIN AT LEAST 240 NM OF
THE CENTER. AN OCCLUDED FRONT GOES FROM THE 1008 MB LOW CENTER
TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 25N53W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 32N48W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE TRIPLE POINT TO 20N56W AND THE DOMINICA PASSAGE IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N50W 16N53W
10N56W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N25W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 34N BETWEEN MAURITANIA AND 40W.
THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT/TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N70W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR
29N. BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 25N50W 15N54W TROUGH.

$$
MT





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