[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070527
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT MAR 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND GOES-12 SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC...AND METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA TO 2N17W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
21W...TO 2SN30W TO 2S38W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S44W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH
OF 10N60W 8N42W 7N24W 6N10W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 85W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EVERYWHERE. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS AROUND A RIDGE ALONG THE LINE FROM 29N80W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
GUADELOUPE PASSAGE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 26N59W...THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
TO 14N67W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW CLOUD
FIELD. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST AND
IN THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...EXPECT SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 10 FT TO 16 FT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
TIGHTENING IN THAT AREA UNDER LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS
DEEPENED FROM 24 HOURS AGO...ALLOWING THE CURRENT 1012 MB
GALE CENTER TO DEVELOP 12 HOURS AGO AND MOVE TO ITS CURRENT
POSITION NEAR 30N51W. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 12 FT
TO 18 FT FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITHIN AT LEAST 240 NM
OF THE CENTER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
24N53W 20N57W AND TO THE GUADELOUPE PASSAGE IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST WITHIN 120 NM
TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT FROM 31N TO 33N FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N50W 20N52W 15N54W. AN EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 28N25W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TO 34N BETWEEN MAURITANIA AND 40W. THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST OF THE FRONT/TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1033 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N67W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR
29N. BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 25N50W 15N54W TROUGH.

$$
MT





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