[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 21W...
TO 2S30W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. ISOLATED
AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS ARE SOUTH
OF 7N EAST OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 100W IN MEXICO. THE GULF OF
MEXICO FINDS ITSELF ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...RECEIVING
NOTHING BUT UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE COLD FRONT
HAS EXITED THE AREA COMPLETELY. IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE RAINING
ANYWHERE IN THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE LINE
FROM THE NORTHERN FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA TO COASTAL HONDURAS
JUST EAST OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N67W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE
TO 17N70W 10N80W...TO WESTERN PANAMA...CURVING TO NORTHWESTERN
COSTA RICA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HAITI TO SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS ALSO TO THE
NORTHWEST THE HAITI-COSTA RICA LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 10N60W BEYOND 24N57W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF THE
HAITI-COSTA RICA LINE FINDS ITSELF STILL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE RIDGE...WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. POSSIBLE
SHOWERS IN THIS AREA. BROAD LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD MOVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE
EAST OF THE LINE FROM HAITI TO SOUTHERN COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 20N67W THROUGH
THE MONA PASSAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N60W 24N57W
BEYOND 32N56W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS EXTEND
FROM SOUTH AMERICA NORTHWARD WITHIN AT LEAST 400 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO 26N63W BEYOND 32N60W.
THE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS SUBSIDED.
A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 29N51W...WITH A TROUGH GOING
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N50W. THIS LOW CENTER IS ABOUT 1000 NM
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF A 1042 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE
LOW/TROUGH.

$$
MT





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