[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED MAR 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND GOES-12 SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC...AND METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 21W...
TO 1S30W 1S39W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN
3W AND 5W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 100W IN MEXICO. THE GULF OF
MEXICO FINDS ITSELF ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...RECEIVING
NOTHING BUT UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE COLD FRONT
HAS EXITED THE AREA COMPLETELY. IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE RAINING
ANYWHERE IN THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE LINE
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 21N69W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO 16N75W 13N80W...TO THE PANAMA COAST NEAR 9N AND
CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HAITI TO
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 60W. THE
EASTERN 55 PERCENT OF THE AREA FINDS ITSELF STILL ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE 60W RIDGE...WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW. POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THIS AREA. BROAD LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD MOVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM HAITI TO SOUTHERN COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 21N69W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 21N69W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO 16N75W 13N80W...TO THE PANAMA COAST NEAR 9N AND
CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 60W FROM THE GUYANA/VENEZUELA AREA BEYOND 32N.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS EXTEND FROM SOUTH AMERICA
NORTHWARD. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
25N65W BEYOND 32N61W. THE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS FROM
16+ HOURS AGO HAS SUBSIDED. A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR
28N50W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N48W AND
21N49W. THIS LOW CENTER IS ABOUT 1000 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
A 1044 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE LOW/TROUGH.

$$
MT





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