[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241104
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE ANALYSIS ALONG 47W/48W
TO THE SOUTH OF 11N. THIS WAVE WAS DETECTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY
FROM 23/1800 UTC...AND CONFIRMED BY STUDYING HOVMOLLER DATA
FROM THE LAST 2 TO 3 DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
9N TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W MAY BE RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 65W/66W TO
THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. THIS WAVE RUNS FROM THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO CENTRAL COASTAL VENEZUELA. THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN VENEZUELA SIX HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED
WITH TIME. IT WILL NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR THIS TO RE-DEVELOP
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY
WINDS MOVE ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 12N16W TO 7N30W 4N37W TO 4N46W...ACROSS
NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA INTO NORTHERN GUIANA NEAR 6N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W...FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN
23W AND 27W...AND FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM WEAKENING BUT STILL LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
FROM 4N TO 10N EAST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 26N103W.
WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS COVER MEXICO FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 101W AND 107W.
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N98W JUST OFF THE COAST
OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM
RADIUS OF 25N97.5W ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. OTHER
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW CENTER COVER
THE AREA FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 90W AND THE MEXICO COAST.
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS BEEN IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
CYCLONIC FLOW CARRIES OVER FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...OVER
LAND...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW FROM LOUISIANA EASTWARD ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE MOVED SOUTHWARD
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
FROM 28N86W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE 65W/66W TROPICAL WAVE HAS
DISSIPATED IN VENEZUELA. A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS IN NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14N86W. A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO 16N82W. ALL THE
PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS OVER LAND SIX HOURS AGO WITH THIS CYCLONIC CENTER HAS
DISSIPATED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN TO THE WEST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS COVER THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 77W AND
83W...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 31N69W TO 26N76W BEYOND
31N85W IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN
63W AND 70W...AND IN PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS AND COASTAL SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W...AND FROM 23N TO
26N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N49W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 43W AND 57W.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
A 33N27W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N30W TO 18N30W.

$$
MT





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