[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 63W/64W
TO THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER LAND IN VENEZUELA FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN
65W AND 66W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN
VENEZUELA FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WINDS MOVE ON TOP OF THE AREA
THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 12N16W TO 7N30W 4N40W TO 4N50W...ACROSS
NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA INTO NORTHERN GUIANA NEAR 6N59W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 15W
AND 16W...FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 24W AND 28W...AND FROM 5N TO 7N
BETWEEN 49W AND 55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N EAST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 25N102W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COVER MEXICO FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 99W AND 103W. A 1007 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N96W JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO.
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION HAVE DEVELOPED FROM 22N TO 26N
BETWEEN 92W AND THE MEXICO COAST. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS BEEN
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. CYCLONIC FLOW CARRIES OVER FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...OVER LAND...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW FROM
LOUISIANA EASTWARD ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION HAVE MOVED SOUTHWARD DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ARE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR
29N91W TO KEY WEST FLORIDA. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CENTERED NEAR SARASOTA NOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 63W/64W TROPICAL WAVE MAY BE HELPING TO PRODUCE THE CURRENT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL VENEZUELA. A MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTH CENTRAL NICARAGUA NEAR
13N85W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO 16N82W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
CYCLONIC CENTER...IN NICARAGUA AND ALONG THE PACIFIC OCEAN COAST
NEAR 11N86W. MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE WESTERN HALF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER
THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W...IN AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 31N69W TO 26N75W TO 27N77W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N77W BEYOND 31N84W IN NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW COVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W...AND FROM
23N TO 26N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...
AND WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N70W 28N67W
BEYOND BERMUDA. THIS PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM THE BAHAMAS TO BERMUDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N48W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 43W AND 57W.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N20W
TO 26N23W TO 18N32W.

$$
MT



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