[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE
HAS HAD A LONG HISTORY AND HAS BEEN EASILY TRACKED ACROSS THE ATLC.
WAVE HAS MOVED UNDER UPPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE BUT IS STILL FAIRLY DISCERNIBLE AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS VIEWED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE.

THE TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 84W S OF 21N AT 14/0000 UTC HAS
BEEN DETERMINED...BASED ON HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM AND LONG RANGE
SATELLITE LOOP INDICATING IT HAS BEEN IN THE GENERAL VICINITY FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...COUPLED WITH THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATING THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND W
CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNCHANGED. THEREFORE THIS FEATURE HAS MORE
CHARACTERISTICS OF A SURFACE TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 6N23W 2N36W 3N47W 4N52W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE PRIME MERIDIAN N OF 3N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 2W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
9N-11N BETWEEN 14W-16W AND FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
41W-49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N
BETWEEN 11W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1017 MB HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE E GULF NEAR
28N89W KEEPING WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY
FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
CROSSING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SE GULF. HOWEVER...THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER W/CENTRAL MEXICO DOMINATING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GULF THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN ABOUT MID
WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW HAS BEEN CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC
AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N86W SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 14/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM 21N85W TO INLAND
OVER HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NEAR 14N85W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN DRAWING UPPER LEVEL
MOSITURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN 74W-83W FROM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA/NW SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS
HAITI/CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 16N ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR
29N69W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR MELBOURNE TO THE FLORIDA KEYS GENERATING
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA NEAR 22N74W TO THE FLORIDA
COAST NEAR FT. LAUDERDALE. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS A NARROWING RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC FROM PUERTO RICO TO 32N60W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 26N BETWEEN 63W-74W AND
WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 26N67W TO BERMUDA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH WELL
N OF THE REGION AND A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N55W. A REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE AND LIES ALONG 31N
WITH AN EQUALLY WEAK 1021 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N45W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT.

$$
WALLACE





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