[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ONE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. THE WAVE WAS SHOWING UP IN THE EARLIER
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLOUDS AND ISOLATED/DISORGANIZED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W.

A SECOND CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS 82W/83W TO THE SOUTH
OF 22N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THE WAVE WAS SHOWING UP IN THE
EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A CYCLONIC CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT
IS NEAR 18N86W. IT IS NOT EASY TO DIFFERENTIATE THE PRECIPITATION
THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC CENTER FROM THE
PRECIPITATION THAT JUST ACCOMPANIES THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 11N15W TO 8N20W TO 3N30W TO 2N40W 4N50W INTO
NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 20W...FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 39W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO MEXICO/GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N86W. CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 23N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
LEADING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS
BETWEEN 82W AND 93W. THIS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW HAS PERSISTED IN
THIS AREA SINCE AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OF LAST WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NORTH
OF 18N...FROM NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS AND WESTWARD TO THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO THE WATERS
TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 84W.

INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 100W...FROM ACAPULCO NORTHWARD
BEYOND 32N IN TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO/

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY AND BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE...JUST TO THE EAST OF THE 82W/83W TROPICAL WAVE...
FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
IN PANAMA JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 71W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N70W TO THE WATERS BETWEEN GREAT INAGUA
AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN NORTHERN FLORIDA NOW...BEING PUSHED SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THAT
STATE. A CLUSTER OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ON TOP OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. SHOWERS WERE ALONG THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO...
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N55W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS
WITHIN A 125 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COVER
THE AREA FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 47W AND 56W. A THIRD MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N43W...MOVING
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. THIS CENTER IS PART OF A TROUGH THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N29W...ALONG A DEFORMATION AXIS FROM 32N29W TO 31N36W
31N40W...TO THE 31N43W CYCLONIC CENTER. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
EXIST FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W.

$$
MT



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