[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N AT 10/0000 UTC...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. METEOSAT-9
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM AS LATE AS 09/1700 UTC DOES NOT
SHOW STRONG EVIDENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND 35W...WHERE THIS
WAVE WAS ANALYZED TO BE AT 09/1800 UTC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN ONE
BIG MASS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 37W AND 46W AT
09/1700 UTC...AND NOT MUCH IF ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
NEAR 35W. FAST FORWARD TO 10/0445 UTC AND WE FIND SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 7N
BETWEEN 41W AND 44W...AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 45W AND 46W.
ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N
BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W...ON TOP OF
JAMAICA...TO THE SOUTH OF 20N AT 10/0000 UTC...MOVING WESTWARD
10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 10N14W TO 5N24W 5N37W 4N46W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6.5N TO 7.5N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W.
ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
3N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...A
WEAKENING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N76W...ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE WEST OF 76W...TO
WESTERN CUBA...INTO WEST-CENTRAL HONDURAS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
HONDURAS TO 17N81W TO 19N76W. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 10/0000 UTC IS 1.65 INCHES AND THE TOTAL FOR
BERMUDA DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD IS 1.15 INCHES IN BERMUDA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COVER THE AREA FROM
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND EVENTUALLY
THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF COLOMBIA ALONG THE EASTERN
PACIFIC SIDE NEAR 3N78W ARE IN AN AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT IS ON TOP OF BROAD LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 69W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO
THE WEST OF 64W IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 32N76W-TO-WEST CENTRAL
HONDURAS MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SMALL-SCALE CYCLONIC CENTER
NEAR 30N42W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
22N45W TO 17N51W TO 10N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM
25N TO 29N BETWEEN 41W AND 47W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
18W FROM 24N TO 27N TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS.

$$
MT





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