[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 10N ALONG 35W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. SLIGHT LOW CLOUD CURVATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE. THE SSMI/AMSRE DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SPIKE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE AXIS FROM
4N-7N BETWEEN 40W-44W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 20N ALONG 75W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW CLOUD CURVATURE IS NOTED. THE SSMI/AMSRE
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AGAIN SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED SPIKE IN MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS N OF 20N. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 73W-75W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NEAR JAMAICA FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN 76W-78W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N20W 7N35W 4N47W AND INTO
THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 14W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
W OF THE AXIS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 40W-44W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-1S BETWEEN 38W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AT 28N89W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. DIURNAL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 80W-82W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 88W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 81W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE NW GULF W OF
94W AND N OF 24N WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED. EXPECT
CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTS OF
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND CUBA. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE N COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
ALONG 68W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FAR W ATLANTIC FROM 32N76W TO 28N79W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITH 30 NM OF 31N78W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM
24N-27N BETWEEN 71W-74W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 28N30W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM
THE HIGH TO THE N BAHAMAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BETWEEN 55W-75W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N47W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 28N20W. IN
THE TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 10N23W.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W ATLANTIC 60W-75W
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA




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