[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090530
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/32W TO THE SOUTH OF
11N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. BROAD LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE
IS MOVING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO
11N BETWEEN 30W AND 31W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W AT 09/0000 UTC
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 11N14W TO 7N20W 4N30W 2N40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 1N56W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
1S TO 2N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N
TO THE WEST OF 37W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS OF 10.5N 14.5W COVERING PARTS OF GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N76W
TO A 28N77W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
AND WESTERN CUBA...TO A 20N81W NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CYCLONIC CENTER TO WEST-CENTRAL HONDURAS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF 20N.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 09/0000 UTC IS 1.27 INCHES. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA AND IN SOUTHERN NICARAGUA NEAR THE BORDER WITH COSTA
RICA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FLAT AND WEAK AT THIS
TIME.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
AND IN SOUTHERN NICARAGUA ARE RELATED TO THE DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 71W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT MOVES FROM JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS GUADELOUPE ALSO IS BEING
WRAPPED INTO THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N51W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N
TO THE WEST OF 70W IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH
AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N51W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W
AND 62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN
49W AND 54W.

$$
MT





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