[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 13N27W TO 4N30W MOVING W NEAR
10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN INVERTED-V CLOUD
SIGNATURE IS PRESENT IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 25W-32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN S OF 18N TILTED ALONG
18N67W TO 10N70W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS
INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 15N INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N27W 5N32W 3N36W AND
INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND
ACROSS INTERIOR W AFRICA FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 8W-14W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 37W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW AND RIDGING OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE BASIN. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE GULF WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
NRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF N OF 27N. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CRESTING THE RIDGE OVER MEXICO. ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
BEING GENERATED ON SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL TROUGHING
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING E TO SE WINDS OF AROUND 10 KT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...THOUGH SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE SRN
U.S. PLAINS AND MEXICO IS SUPPORTING SE TO S 15 KT WINDS ACROSS
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE GULF. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH REMAINS
ANCHORED IN THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM THE COASTS OF
PANAMA TO NICARAGUA CONTINUING NE TO ERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
WRN HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS LARGELY FORCED BY THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS ELY TRADE
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT CONTINUE FEEDING SURFACE FLOW WESTWARD. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND PROVIDE CONTINUED
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES NEWD OVER THE BAHAMAS INTO THE W
ATLC WATERS. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR
NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA IS SUPPORTING ELY TRADE WINDS OF
20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 20N
W OF 69W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...ERN CUBA AND ADJACENT NEARBY
COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA. ALSO...SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FLORIDA W ATLC COAST. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 43W-53W...WHERE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
22N52W. ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ANCHORED ON A PAIR
OF 1021 MB SURFACE HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 28N57W AND 28N33W. ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 18N E OF 45W
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 10N26W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 28W/29W.

$$
HUFFMAN



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