[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 080522
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W AT 08/0000 UTC TO THE SOUTH
OF 19N AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS
WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 11N14W TO 8N20W 6N30W 3N40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 1N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N12W
8N18W 6N26W 5N36W 1N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N78W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO WESTERN CUBA...TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN GUATEMALA...
IN CUBA TO THE WEST OF 80W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 70W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAK AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
100 NM TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA.
EASILY PROBABLY SOME LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN MAY BE RECORDED IN
PARTS OF NICARAGUA AND POSSIBLY EVEN IN HONDURAS IF THIS AREA OF
RAIN MAINTAINS ITSELF AND REACHES LAND. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...IN BETWEEN THE TROUGH
THAT HAS PERSISTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT
MOVES FROM HISPANIOLA TO MARTINIQUE ALSO IS BEING WRAPPED INTO
THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN 25N55W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND CUBA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N
TO THE WEST OF 70W IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH
AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N55W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 48W
AND 66W. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND
62W.

$$
MT





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