[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 072347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
MOVING BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE AND THUS AN AREA OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT IS LEAVING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARLY VISIBLE. CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF
13N AND SIMILAR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N E
OF 64W INCLUDING THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N28W 2N42W AND INLAND
OVER NE BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-30W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN S OF 7N BETWEEN 30W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ACROSS THE E GULF...FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
FAR W ATLC AND EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N79W. THE BASE
OF THIS UPPER TROUGH DIPS S ACROSS WRN CUBA AND INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED
OVER SE GEORGIA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS NRN
FLORIDA FROM JACKSONVILLE WWD TO NEAR PENSACOLA. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
TSTMS ACROSS THE E GULF E OF 84W AND OVER FLORIDA INTO THE W
ATLC WATERS. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO LOCATED
ACROSS THE SE GULF E OF A LINE FROM 27N84W TO THE WRN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS PROVIDING
NLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRY AIR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THUS
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AND
AXIS ALONG 70W DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS PROVIDING MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AND AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 21N77W OVER ERN CUBA TO 13N84W NEAR
THE CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 73W-79W. ONLY OTHER
FEATURE AT THE SURFACE TO NOTE IS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ERN
CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC W OF 72W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO E OF BERMUDA AND IS
PROVIDING THE W ATLC. BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AN
AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT EXISTS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 72W-81W...INCLUDING MUCH OF ERN
CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE
FLORIDA COAST. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
23N56W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N57W TO
21N60W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 48W-57W.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE IS
PRESENT ANCHORED BY TWO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...A 1022
MB HIGH NEAR 30N39W AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N56W. FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC WATERS E OF 66W EXCEPT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE.

$$
HUFFMAN




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