[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF A BROAD MAXIMUM IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER. SATELLITE IMAGES FROM LATE MON INDICATED A
SUBTLE INVERTED-V CLOUD STRUCTURE. SINCE THEN...MUCH OF THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS HAS BECOME MORE LINEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PERSISTS MAINLY TO THE E OF THE AXIS WITHIN THE
INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 26-34W...ENHANCED BY
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W S OF
15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW
MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE INTERACTION WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH IS FUELING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE
ERN HALF OF VENEZUELA. SOME CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL TURNING IS
APPARENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE N PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N14W 5N20W 4N30W 1N44W TO THE
EQUATOR ALONG 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 8W-14W...FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 20W-35W...AND
S OF 2N W OF 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF
FROM 23N88W TO JUST W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND STRONG SW/W FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 25N E OF 95W...WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. SIMILAR TSTM ACTIVITY IS NEAR
THE COASTS OF N MEXICO AND S TEXAS...ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALONG 99W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NE WATERS IS
RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. LOOKING
AHEAD A DAY OR TWO...NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC  TROUGH
WILL LIFT N AND WEAKEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MID-UPPER PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
A RIDGE OVER THE WRN HALF AND TROUGHING OVER THE ERN HALF.
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER GUATEMALA...
BELIZE...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCED BY THE
ITCZ. THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE STABLE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
IN AN UPPER CONFLUENT AREA BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE. SW FLOW
ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE
IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. TRADE WINDS REMAIN 20-30 KT
ACROSS THE S CENTRAL PORTION DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRES
OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA. WINDS NEAR 20 KT EXIST OVER THE
TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED GULF OF HONDURAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THESE FLOWS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION ZONE ARE
QUIET...WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO MENTION.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 27N W OF 68W...INCLUDING THE
BAHAMAS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET AND A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS. THE ASSOCIATED DEBRIS MOISTURE HAS SPREAD WELL TO
THE NE THROUGH BERMUDA BY STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC...THOUGH AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 27N45W IS INTERRUPTING THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY.
NONETHELESS...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE E ATLC IS
MAINLY UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A DEEP LOW CENTERED A COUPLE
HUNDRED NM N OF THE AZORES. A SECONDARY SMALLER 1017 MB LOW IS
LOCATED TO ITS SW NEAR 31N39W. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW A PRONOUNCED E-W ELONGATION OF THE SECONDARY LOW
AND BASED ON THE AVAILABLE DATA...WINDS APPEAR MAINLY LESS THAN
20 KT. DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ...PARTICULARLY E
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W.

$$
CANGIALOSI





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