[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 09N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF A BROAD MAXIMUM IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER. SATELLITE IMAGES FROM LATE MON INDICATED A
SUBTLE INVERTED-V CLOUD STRUCTURE. SINCE THEN...MUCH OF THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS HAS BECOME MORE LINEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE E OF THE AXIS WITHIN THE INTERSECTION
OF THE ITCZ FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 26-30W...ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W S OF 15N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW
MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE INTERACTION WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH IS FUELING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE
ERN HALF OF VENEZUELA. SOME CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL TURNING IS
APPARENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONA PASSAGE...PERHAPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE N PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N22W 5N34W 2N42W TO THE
EQUATOR ALONG 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 16W-21W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF 6N
BETWEEN 24W-34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N
BETWEEN 22W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF 3N
BETWEEN 42W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF
FROM 26N86W TO THE NW CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND STRONG SW/W FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 24N E OF 93W. LIGHTNING DATA SUGGESTS
THAT TSTM ACTIVITY IS SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED NEAR THE COASTS OF
N MEXICO AND S TEXAS...ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG
101W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NE WATERS IS RESULTING IN
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD A DAY OR
TWO...NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC WEAK TROUGH WILL LIFT N
AND WEAKEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS
COAST THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MID-UPPER PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
A RIDGE OVER THE WRN HALF AND TROUGHING OVER THE ERN HALF.
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER GUATEMALA...
BELIZE...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCED BY THE
ITCZ. THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE STABLE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
IN AN UPPER CONFLUENT AREA BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE. SW FLOW
ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS... BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER VENEZUELA. TRADE WINDS REMAIN 20-30 KT ACROSS THE S
CENTRAL PORTION DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER
THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRES OVER NRN SOUTH
AMERICA. WINDS NEAR 20 KT EXIST OVER THE TOPOGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED GULF OF HONDURAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE FLOWS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION ZONE ARE
QUIET...WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO MENTION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 27N W OF
70W...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET AND A
WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. THE ASSOCIATED DEBRIS MOISTURE HAS
SPREAD WELL TO THE NE THRU BERMUDA BY STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT.
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL
ATLC...THOUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N45W IS INTERRUPTING THE RIDGE
SLIGHTLY. NONETHELESS...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE E
ATLC IS MAINLY UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A DEEP LOW CENTERED A
COUPLE HUNDRED NM N OF THE AZORES. A SECONDARY SMALLER LOW IS
LOCATED TO ITS SW NEAR 32N39W PRODUCING 20 KT WINDS...AS
REVEALED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS...AND LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS. MUCH
OF THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CONFINED TO THE
ITCZ...PARTICULARLY E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W.

$$
CANGIALOSI





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