[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W 1N20W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 25W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W.
DISORGANIZED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL
CLUSTERS ARE FROM 4N TO 1S BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 23W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE
ALONG THE BRAZIL COAST BETWEEN 47W AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 65W...
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BASE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT NOW IS SWINGING
THROUGH THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO NORTHERN ANDROS ISLAND...WESTERN
CUBA...ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CURVING INTO
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SEPARATED PART OF A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE WESTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC NORTHWESTWARD TO 24N101W IN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH
OF 28N WEST OF THE FRONT TO 73W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 TO 14 FT.
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHWEST OF 21N80W 20N84W 18N88W. A WELL-DEFINED
CLOUD BAND WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MARKS THE COLD FRONT IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THROUGH 32N71W 28N75W 23N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A
DISORGANIZED CENTER OF CIRCULATION NEAR 15N82W JUST OFF THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. BROAD CLIMATOLOGICAL CYCLONIC
FLOW IS SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 75W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 65W/66W FROM 10N TO 20N JUST TOUCHING THE EASTERN
EXTREMES OF PUERTO RICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW IN THE SAME AREA MAY BE HELPING ANY CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG
64W/65W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS SOUTH OF 10N83W
16N74W 20N63W 19N60W...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 65W...
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
BETWEEN 30W AND 75W OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE APEX OF THE RIDGE IS
NEAR 37N52W. WEAK AND DISORGANIZED CUT-OFF CYCLONIC FLOW IS
DISTURBING THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM 19N TO 26N BETWEEN
52W AND 65W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N42W.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 62W AND 63W.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 31N11W TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 29N37W TO 27N54W TO 24N70W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS
MOVED TO A LINE THROUGH MOROCCO NEAR 33N7W TO 26N18W JUST WEST
OF WESTERN SAHARA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT IN MOROCCO.
A TROUGH IS UNDER THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ALONG 13N38W 11N48W.

$$
MT








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