[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N08W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT
25W THEN INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 2N-5N E OF 2W...
FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 3W-6W...AND FROM 2S-EQ BETWEEN 6W-10W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-1N BETWEEN
25W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 25N80W 21N87W 20N93W
17N93W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER MEXICO ALONG 17N96W
22N101W 25N100W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE N OF THE
FRONTS TO 25N. FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
15-20 KT N WINDS DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT OVER THE W
GULF WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED S OF 23N W OF 94W.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50'S AND 60'S OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM IS ALOFT OVER THE N
GULF N OF 25N. ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...A 1026 MB HIGH TO MOVE INTO THE NE GULF IN
24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE GALE TO END IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH 25 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF 68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 15N AND W OF 80W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 75W-85W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA
EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
NOTED. EXPECT...FRONTAL RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N70W TO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE FRONT. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. A LARGE 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N35W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS DOTS THE
ATLANTIC E OF 60W TO AFRICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N60W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN 40W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF
10N AND E OF 40W. EXPECT..THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE W
ATLANTIC IN 24 HOURS AND BE FROM 32N61W TO E CUBA WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA










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