[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161720
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 1N23W 1N35W INTO NE BRAZIL
NEAR 1S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
16W-22W...AND FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 28W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVERS MOST OF THE GULF
EXCEPT THE NE GULF WHERE FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. 15-20 KT NE
SURFACE FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS
ARE BEING EXPERIENCED HOWEVER IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
UPPER 30'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES AND IN THE UPPER 60'S OVER
S FLORIDA AND S TEXAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF S OF 27N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS N OF 27N. A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE NE GULF STATES
AND CONTINUES OVER THE TO THE S ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT...
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FROM A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO N HONDURAS ALONG
22N78W 16N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADEWINDS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AREAS OF BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA W OF 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 62W FROM 10N-20N. MOST SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N
COLOMBIA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 17N56W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO
REMAIN STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO
EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W WITH MORE SHOWERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM E OF BERMUDA TO
CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 32N61W 22N78W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. A 1035 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N34W. MOSTLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
ARE N OF 10N BETWEEN W AFRICA AND 40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N47W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
30W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR
17N56W. DIFFLUENCE SW OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 50W-55W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA N OF 15N W OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA






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