[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N15W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 23W TO 2S30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S38W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 16W-21W. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7S-3N BETWEEN 22W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS...EXTENDING A SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. THIS
SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NE WINDS
20-25 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE GULF SOUTH OF 26N. STRONG SWLY WINDS
ALOFT ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC
ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE W ATLC. EXPECT THE HIGH PRESSURE TO
WEAKEN SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE NW GULF ON SUN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NW CARIBBEAN. AS OF 0900 UTC...THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL
CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. N TO NE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE TO 25-30 KT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
NE WINDS NEAR 15 KT ARE OBSERVED. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC
TROUGH EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE MOVING OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...THE CARIBBEAN LACKS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC ALONG 30N66W 25N73W
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE W ATLC BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. A SFC TROUGH...REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR
15N54W...IS DEPICTED ALONG 21N5W 16N57W TO 11N57W. BROAD
CIRCULATION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SURROUND THE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTH AMERICAN COAST TO 21N BETWEEN 47W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
EXPECT THE TROUGH TO PROGRESS SLOWLY WESTWARD...BRINGING
INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SFC RIDGE ANCHORED ON A
1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N40W. A SWATH OF MODERATE TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS IS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE.
ALOFT...DIVERGENCE IN THE TROPICS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR
THE ITCZ.

$$
WADDINGTON







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