[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

7N10W 5N20W 5N30W 3N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 48W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS FROM 3N TO 6N
BETWEEN 16W AND 43W...FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 17W AND 21W...AND
FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA. A SHALLOW
STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...TO
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N95W. THE FRONT CONTINUES
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 22N98W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST...
CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND. ALL THE MOISTURE IS
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N56W TO
28N73W TO 27N89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LINES OF CONFLUENT SURFACE WIND FLOW.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE EVERYWHERE.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM YESTERDAY...THAT WAS PROVIDING
SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT REACHED 31N BETWEEN 60W
AND 70W...NOW IS NORTH OF THE AREA. IT HAS BECOME SEPARATED FROM
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT NOW IS ALONG 32N52W TO 15N54W.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 32N BETWEEN
35W AND 62W. SURFACE RIDGE FROM 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 32N29W TO 26N45W. A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N56W TO 28N73W TO
27N89W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH MADEIRAS ARCHIPELAGO TO 23N20W TO 16N21W.

$$
MT





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