[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 052345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 3N35W 3N45W 1N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 40W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1015 MB SFC LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N96N WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE FAR W GULF ENTERING MEXICO NEAR 22N98W.
A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS TO THE NE OF THE LOW TO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEHIND THE
FRONT AS INDICATED BY VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. LIGHT WINDS AND
FAIR WEATHER REMAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION DUE
TO A SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT TO FOLLOW THE FRONT AS
IT DRIFTS TO THE SE THROUGH TUE AND THEN MOVES MORE RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE REGION REACHING S FLORIDA ON WED AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATE WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING NW FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 14N82W...CLOSE TO THE NE
COAST OF NICARAGUA. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN IS CREATING WIDESPREAD DRY STABLE AIR AS
INDICATED FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHT SHOWERS MOSTLY IN THE SE CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 75W. OTHERWISE LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
ON THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MID-UPPER PATTERN IS NEARLY WLY AND QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE
ATLC BASIN...WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
AND RIDGES. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE N OF
20N BETWEEN 45W AND 65W...MAINLY AHEAD OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH LIES ALONG 59W/60W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW-
LEVEL TROUGH LIES IN THE W ATLC AND THE SE BAHAMAS WITH AXIS
ALONG 74W. ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N44W TO
23N55W ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES COVERS THE FORECAST AREA ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB CENTER NEAR 32N26W AND A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR 29N63W. A
SIMILAR HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
CW/MH




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