[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141119
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N13W 04N20W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 37W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 01S47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 10W-13W...AND FROM
01N-03N BETWEEN 22W-26W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
01N-04N BETWEEN 15W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N74W.
10-15 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. A
COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER TEXAS FROM 32N94W TO 28N99W 30N103W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE
AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF WITH
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE NORTH GULF
STATES. EXPECT... A 130-150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TO BE OVER THE
NORTH GULF STATES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW.
ALSO EXPECT A SURFACE LOW TO MOVE TO S MISSISSIPPI IN 24 HOURS
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING W TO S TEXAS AND A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING E TO N FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. THE GULF OF MEXICO S
OF 26N WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ISOLATED
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME
SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA N OF
15N...OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N...AND INLAND OVER NICARAGUA
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED
SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N74W. A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N50W AND EXTENDS SW TO
THE N BAHAMAS ALONG 27N60W 25N70W 26N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 28N33W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN 50W-70W. A 70-90 KT TROPICAL JET WITH
BROKEN HIGH CLOUD EXTENDS FROM 12N50W TO W AFRICA NEAR 20N17W.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST IN 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE E TO 32N38W
IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA





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