[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 140549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N10W 01N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 37W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN
08W-11W...AND FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 16W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-03N BETWEEN 13W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR
30N79W. 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF
26N. A 1012 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 31N92W. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG
90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES. EXPECT... A
130-150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TO BE OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. ALSO EXPECT THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE TO SE LOUISIANA IN 24 HOURS WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING W TO S TEXAS AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E TO N
FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ISOLATED
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME
SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA N OF
15N...OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N...AND INLAND OVER NICARAGUA
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED
SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N79W. A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N53W AND EXTENDS SW TO
THE N BAHAMAS ALONG 28N60W 26N70W 26N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 27N38W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN 50W-70W. A 70 -90 KT TROPICAL JET WITH
BROKEN HIGH CLOUD EXTENDS FROM 12N50W TO W AFRICA NEAR 20N17W.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST IN 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE E TO 32N40W
IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA




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