[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 062322
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N16W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 40W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG 1036 MB SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SLIDE E NOW CENTERED
NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. THIS POSITION HAS ALLOWED THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE UNIFORM E TO SE ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH HAS MODIFIED THE COOL AIRMASS THAT WAS IN PLACE EARLIER
THIS WEEK. SFC OBS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS THE STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE S HALF OF THE GULF...WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS TIGHTENED DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SE OF THE AREA. STRONG
RETURN FLOW EXISTS OVER THE NW GULF IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES OVER
THE UPPER PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING IN THE AREAS OF STRONG FLOW MENTIONED...ESPECIALLY IN
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEARLY STATIONARY
FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 19N68W 15N73W
12N78W. PATCHY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BUT MOST ORGANIZED WITHIN 90 NM W
OF THE OLD FRONT. SIMILAR MOISTURE IS OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM OF
A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 66W MOVING WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.
WHILE GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE COME TO AN END NEAR THE COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND COLOMBIA...WINDS TO 30 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE NW ATLC OFF THE COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND IS PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT TO A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N53W TURNING STATIONARY NEAR
30N55W AND EXTENDING SW TO THE MONA PASSAGE. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
BOUNDARY...WHILE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE IS FOUND N OF THE AREA
IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT AREA.  E OF THE FRONT...DEEP LAYER
RIDGING LIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED
1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N36W. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ELONGATED TROUGH LIES SE OF THE RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE E ATLC.
THIS FEATURE IS PROMOTING AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN WITH A SW
UPPER JET ORIGINATING E OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENDING
NE ACROSS WRN AFRICA...DRIVING MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WITH POCKETS OF DEEPER MOISTURE S OF 18N E OF 36W.

$$
CANGIALOSI



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