[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N7W 1N18W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W
AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 45W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NE FLORIDA
DOMINATES THE PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ON
S-SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN...WHICH IS ENHANCED BY
WIDESPREAD STABILITY ALOFT. THIS IS PRIMARILY CAUSED BY UPPER
CONFLUENCE BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NE AND A RIDGE TO THE SE. THE
SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN PLAIN
STATES... GRADUALLY INCREASING ELY WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND SELY WINDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W-CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE ALONG 16N70W 14N74W 10N77W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
WITH NE WINDS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN. E OF THE FRONT...A SWIFT
MOVING SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 20N61W ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES TO THE GULF OF PARIA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN FRESH TRADES AND IS PROVIDING THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 13N-17N. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW
IN NATURE AND CAPPED BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE AS OBSERVED IN UPPER
AIR SOUNDINGS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NW ATLC OFF THE COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N53W TURNING STATIONARY NEAR 30N55W AND
EXTENDING SW TO THE MONA PASSAGE THEN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF NW SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE W ATLC AND
E-SE TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE BOUNDARY. E OF THE FRONT...DEEP
LAYER UPPER RIDGING IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE
ASSOCIATED 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N37W. A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED ELONGATED TROUGH LIES SE OF THE RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE
E ATLC. THIS FEATURE IS PROMOTING AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN AS
A SWLY UPPER JET LIES E OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENDS NE
ACROSS WRN AFRICA...DRIVING MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH
POCKETS OF DEEPER MOISTURE S OF 20N E OF 35W.

$$
HUFFMAN


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