[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051124
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 1N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 41W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 5N-7N E OF
13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 19W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE EXTREME TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT CLIPS THE SW GULF FROM THE
NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 22N91W. A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS LIMITING CLOUD
COVER TO COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS IN THE E GULF. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MISSISSIPPI EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO STRENGTHEN AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. AS OF 0900 UTC...THE
FRONT CROSSES OVER CUBA AND ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 21N78W THEN
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...MOVING INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N88W. NO PRECIPITATION IS NOTED WITH
THIS FRONT...HOWEVER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
AROUND THE FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT.
A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS HAITI ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN NEAR
18N74W AND STRETCHES SW TO NEAR 11N79W. GALE FORCE WINDS
CONTINUE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-15N W OF 82W ALONG THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA AND BETWEEN 75W-76W S OF 12N ALONG THE
COLOMBIAN COAST. ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN...FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS PREVENTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
IN THE W ATLC. THE PRIMARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
31N59W AND CONTINUES INTO THE CARIBBEAN CROSSING HISPANIOLA NEAR
20N70W. MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40
NM OF THIS BOUNDARY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 31N65W AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND OVER CUBA NEAR
22N77W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED N OF 29N WITHIN 300 NM W
OF THIS FRONT. THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC ARE COVERED BY A
LARGE SFC RIDGE CENTERED AROUND A 1033 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 33N40W.

$$
WADDINGTON







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