[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 4N8W 2N20W 1N35W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 43W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 13W-17W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-3N BETWEEN 20W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE GULF.
AS OF 0300 UTC...THE FRONT IS POSITIONED ACROSS CUBA ENTERING
THE GULF NEAR THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND CONTINUING
NW TO NEAR 23N92W. THIS FRONT IS DRY IN NATURE LEAVING ONLY COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS IN ITS WAKE. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE KEEPING THE NRN GULF
MOSTLY CLOUD FREE. AT THE AFC...A HIGH OVER ARKANSAS EXTENDS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN FROM A COLD FRONT IN THE
W ATLC. AS OF 0300 UTC...THE TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION ALONG THE
WESTERN TIP OF HAITI AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR
12N83W.GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED AT THE TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH FROM 12N-15N W OF 82W ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. A
SECOND AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS OBSERVED ALONG THE COLOMBIAN
COAST S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-76W. IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...A COLD
FRONT CROSSES CUBA AND ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 22N80W AND EXTENDS
TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NORTHERLY WINDS 20-30 KT
ARE OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN
ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO
PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS IN THE W ATLC. AS OF 0300
UTC...THE FIRST FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N61W AND
CONTINUES SW TO HAITI NEAR 20N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
100 NM OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE SECOND REINFORCING FRONT ENTERS THE
W ATLC NEAR 30N68W AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND OVER
CUBA NEAR 22N78W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE W ATLC
BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED NORTH OF
29N WITHIN 300NM W OF THE REINFORCING FRONT. THE CENTRAL AND
EAST ATLC ARE DOMINATED BY A LARGE SFC RIDGE CENTERED AROUND A
1034 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 33N41W.

$$
WADDINGTON




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