[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N8W TO 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG
27W...TO JUST SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 3S48W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 10W
AND THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF BRAZIL ALONG 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS THE
COLD FRONT/THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR THAT CURRENTLY
PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N77W TO FLORIDA NEAR
28N82W...TO 27N90W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
TEXAS COAST JUST SOUTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR
30N106W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NORTH OF 29N WITHIN 240 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CURRENT GULF OF
MEXICO COLD FRONT...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FT TO 12 FT
FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS...AND THEN SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM
13 FT TO 19 FT DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT MORE COLD ARCTIC
AIR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W. THE BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR
WITH THE CURRENT COLD AIR IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAKE IT
AT LEAST TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HAITI
TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA DURING THE AT LEAST THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE ARCTIC BLAST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
ALREADY-EXISTING DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. CLOUD BUILD-UPS
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 61W AND 65W
IN THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALONG 69W FROM 11N TO 16N...PRODUCING SOME CLOUD
DEVELOPMENTS AND EARLIER SHOWERS...SINCE THEN DISSIPATED.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
ONE CLUSTER IN WESTERN PANAMA...IN ONSHORE FLOW AND BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS SOUTH OF 12N EAST OF 76W ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FT TO 12 FT.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALSO NORTH OF 12N WEST OF 82W
ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING
FROM 8 FT TO 12 FT OUTSIDE THE REEFS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WEST OF 65W...THE EASTERN U.S.A....AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY PASSES
THROUGH 32N61W TO 27N67W TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THIS IS THE
LAST FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 59W
AND 65W. THE RAINFALL TOTAL FROM BERMUDA ENDING AT 04/1200 UTC
WAS 0.76 INCHES. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N21W TO 28N34W TO 24N43W TO 18N49W. THE PART OF THE TROUGH
NORTH OF 32N SUPPORTS THE CURRENT STORM CENTER WEST OF FRANCE.
A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM
19N31W TO 13N34W 9N46W TO 6N56W JUST NORTH OF SURINAME. LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW RIDES RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF
THE TWO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS...AND IT COVERS THE AREA
NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 20W AND TROUGH/COLD FRONT COMBINATION.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 10N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE COLD FRONT...AROUND A 1036 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N42W.

$$
MT








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