[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 1N20W ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
29W-44W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-20W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-3N BETWEEN 26W-32W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3S TO THE AXIS W OF 35W
INTO NE BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING OFF THE SE CONUS AND INTO THE NRN GULF.
AS OF 0900 UTC...THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND AND STRETCHES WESTWARD ACROSS THE NRN GULF TO TEXAS
JUST NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI. THE FRONT IS DRY IN NATURE WITH
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S NORTH OF THE FRONT.
A 1027 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N95W ALONG WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. ONSHORE RETURN FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE SW
GULF IS GENERATING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO S OF TAMPICO. EXPECT N TO NE WINDS 15 KT TO INCREASE
TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SINK S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 19N77W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W.
NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT ARE OBSERVED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND
THE FRONT. MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHOWERS
EXTEND 60 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL
SHOWERS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS PREVENTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N65W AND EXTENDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 31N76W. A SFC TROUGH FOLLOWS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS ANALYZED FROM 31N68W TO 22N78W.
MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. A GALE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT N OF 29N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD-AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE W ATLC BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE
AREA NEAR 33N41W.


$$
WADDINGTON








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