[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121122
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N30W 2N45W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 10W-13W...
AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 24W-26W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 28N96W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 23N96W 22N98W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM
THE LOW TO THE E GULF ALONG 28N93W 25N86W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 29N AS NOTED ON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY.
WINDS N OF THE WARM AND STATIONARY FRONTS ARE FROM THE ENE AT
20-25 KT. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 40'S OVER THE N GULF TO
THE 70'S OVER S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 29N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE TO S
MISSISSIPPI NEAR 31N91W IN 24 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
SW FROM THE LOW TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO WITH SHOWERS. THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE INLAND OVER THE N GULF STATES. 10-15 SE SURFACE
FLOW WILL BE OVER MOST OF THE GULF E OF THE COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR
9N76W. A RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS
PRODUCING STRONG TRADEWINDS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
1200 UTC ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
75W-78W. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS
THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY N OF 14N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W. A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N70W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION. EXPECT...SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND LITTLE CHANGE
ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N53W TO 26N70W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA
NEAR 24N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONTS.
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N45W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM
32N11W TO S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N15W 23N20W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N W OF 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N E OF 40W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 35N14W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM 32N38W TO 25N60W TO THE N
BAHAMAS WITH CONVECTION HEAVIEST N OF 24N W OF 70W.

$$
FORMOSA





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