[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N30W EQ50W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 11W-18W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 29W-32W...AND FROM EQ-2N
BETWEEN 34W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N96W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO
ALONG 24N96W 23N98W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO THE
CENTRAL GULF ALONG 28N92W 26N87W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER A MAJORITY
OF THE GULF NORTH OF THESE FRONTS. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES THESE SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND FLORIDA KEYS...AS WELL AS ALONG THE TEXAS AND SE CONUS GULF
COAST. WINDS N OF THE WARM AND STATIONARY FRONTS ARE FROM THE ENE AT
20-25 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF
N OF 28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...
THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE TO S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N91W IN 24 HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SW FROM THE LOW TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO
WITH SHOWERS. THE WARM FRONT WILL THEN BE INLAND OVER THE N GULF
STATES. 10-15 SE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE OVER THE GULF E OF THE COLD
FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. A RELATIVELY
TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING STRONG
TRADEWINDS. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS
THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY N OF 14N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N81W. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N70W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
EXPECT...SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N57W CONTINUING SW TO 27N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM OF THE FRONTS. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
28N43W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
FROM 32N13W THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 25N20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS N OF 20N W OF 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 15N E OF 40W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 35N15W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
EXTEND FROM 32N38W TO 25N60W TO THE N BAHAMAS WITH CONVECTION
HEAVIEST N OF 24N W OF 70W.

$$
FORMOSA






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net