[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N30W 4N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER NE FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION INTO THE NE GULF NEAR 29N83W CONTINUING SW
ALONG 26N86W 22N90W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS STATIONARY TO THE SOUTHERN
MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N95W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED 60/90 NM
EAST OF THE FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A LINE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH WITH LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE MID-ATLC STATES. AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD AND EXITS THE GULF REGION...THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SW
CONUS WILL DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW GULF LATE FRIDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO GALE
FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE E
PACIFIC EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER EASTERN CUBA AND INTO
THE W ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER AND FAIR SKIES TO MUCH OF THE
BASIN. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING USHERED IN ON
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND LESSER
ANTILLES MAINLY E OF 70W. ALSO...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND ALONG THE COASTS OF WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NICARAGUA SW OF A LINE FROM 12N84W TO 9N80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EXTREME W ATLC FROM INLAND ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OVER THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 75W. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER
THE MID-ATLC STATES. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA TO BEYOND 32N65W IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 36N61W. HOWEVER...
POCKETS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 53W-64W AND
FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 68W-73W. FARTHER EAST...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S ALONG 44W TO 16N AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N49W TO BEYOND 32N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AZORES.

$$
HUFFMAN



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