[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED DEC 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 5N24W 4N51W. ITCZ IS VOID OF
ANY DEEP CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 16W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF ENTERING OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN PENSACOLA AND PANAMA CITY ALONG 26N87W
21N92W INTO S MEXICO JUST E OF VERACRUZ WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA E OF THE FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LOW MOVING N ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/W TENNESSEE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS. A JETSTREAM WITH
WINDS OF 90 TO 125 KT COVERS THE NW GULF FROM TUXPAN MEXICO TO TAMPA
FLORIDA AS INDICATED SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE W ATLC TONIGHT/THU MORNING STALLING FROM SW FLORIDA TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER ON THU THEN WILL MOVE BACK N OVER THE GULF
WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE W
ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER AND FAIR SKIES TO MUCH OF THE
BASIN. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING USHERED IN ON
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND LESSER
ANTILLES MAINLY E OF 70W. ALSO...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG
THE COASTS FROM CENTRAL PANAMA TO S NICARAGUA SW OF A LINE FROM
12N84W TO 9N80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
OVER THE W ATLC W OF 60W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE W ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH N OF BERMUDA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 27N W OF 78W
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
NARROW UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 48W AND IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE E
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N45W TO 19N52W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 41W-47W N OF 21N. AN EQUALLY
NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 42W
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ABOVE. THE E ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH
OVER THE AZORES. THIS SCENARIO IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
AND E ATLC FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING.

$$
WALLACE





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