[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 272356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS CENTERED NEAR 28.0N 73.3W AT 28/0000 UTC
OR ABOUT 515 MILES...825 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA MOVING N AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
205 MILES...335 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
CENTER FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 68W-72W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. A
1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N27W. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WELL W OF THE
SYSTEM FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 31W-35W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. ONLY
A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AXIS
AND THE ITCZ. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE THIS
FEATURE AND IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE
NORTHERN END OF THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
WAVE REMAINS WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS
OBSERVED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IS OVER JAMAICA AND E CUBA FROM
18N-22N BETWEEN 76W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER PANAMA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 77W-81W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 11N27W 10N35W 12N47W
10N61W. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 13W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 29N83W
26N87W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N
BETWEEN 81W-86W. FURTHER S...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI
NEAR 30N89W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 20N88W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
MOST OF THE GULF. EXPECT...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE OVER THE S GULF AND FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE AREA WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A 1006 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N
COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-11N BETWEEN 73W-77W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
S OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N76W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W. SE FLOW DUE TO THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT...MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
T.S. DANNY IS THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE
ABOVE. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
32N62W. ANOTHER 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 35N32W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N64W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 27N47W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION S OF THE CENTER FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN
47W-49W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR THE CANARY
ISLANDS AT 28N19W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC W
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N30W.

$$
FORMOSA







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