[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 141737
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED
ABOUT 1225 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.  WHILE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT NEAR
15 MPH.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA
NORTHWARD INTO THE BAHAMAS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.  THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.  SURFACE PRESSURES
ARE HIGH IN THIS AREA AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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