[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR
14.6N 41.7W E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING W AT 10 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE CENTER FROM
14N-16N BETWEEN 42W-44W.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR
10 KT. AN EMBEDDED 1008 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 12.1N
26.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF
THE CENTER FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 28W-32W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 23N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE S BAHAMAS AND E CUBA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES LOW-LEVEL INVERTED-V FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS. THIS WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP
MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-23N
BETWEEN 75W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS ALSO BROKEN AWAY FROM THIS
WAVE AND IS NOW NEAR THE N BAHAMAS ALONG 28N74W TO 25N76W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN
71W-74W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 20N MOVING W 20-25 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION
IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 12N30W 15N42W 10N50W
11N62W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION THAT WAS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS...ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN
12W-17W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 23W-32W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 52W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM N FLORIDA AT 30N82W TO
THE NE GULF AT 27N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 82W-85W. 15 MINUTE LIGHTNING
DATA SHOWS FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITHIN 150 NM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE N GULF N OF
24N E OF 94W. OUTSIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION...SURFACE WINDS ARE
LIGHT TO VARIABLE ACROSS THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER S MEXICO CENTERED AT 17N95W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION AND SHOWERS OVER THE NE
GULF AND N FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT TROPICAL
PRECIPITATION TO ADVECT OVER E CUBA AND S FLORIDA DUE TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY ALONG 76W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM THE SEA OF MARACAIBO VENEZUELA TO COSTA RICA FROM
6N-11N BETWEEN 71W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER
HISPANIOLA...AND OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 12N. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR
15N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N60W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N54W TO 25N56W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1025 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N34W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N73W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N62W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
25N50W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 20N30W. EXPECT THE
SPECIAL FEATURE TROPICAL WAVE TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
MRF/RFB







This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net